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Friday, December 4, 2009

China Worried about US Debt - The making of a Powerhouse

Richard Fisher, head of the Federal Reserve Bank in Dallas, Texas – one of the US’s largest states – told a British Newspaper yesterday that the Chinese are incredibly concerned over the US governments handling of the financial crisis, specifically, the printing of money by way of the Federal Reserve buying US government bonds, treasury bills and notes. For those of you that don’t know this, when a government wants to increase its cash position, it “lends: itself money by buying up its own debt. I know most of wish we could do that, but if this were the case we would be bankrupt with houses stripped and cars repossessed and the rights to our firstborn taken as well.

This is yet another example of China showing they are worried. Did they come out and tell Ben Bernanke or Tim Geithner, the US Fed Chairman and Treasury Secretary? No. Did they send a letter to Vice President Biden or talk with Secretary of State Clinton? No, and Clinton was just there. Did they address the congressional delegation who came to visit them this week – a delegation that included the speaker of the US House of representatives Nancy Pelosi, AKA the third most powerful person in the US? No. What they did do was take a round about way to let people know they are unhappy with the status of their investment and the way in which the CEO is handling the company. By Company I mean, The US and by CEO I mean Obama.

Yen Falls Most in 3 Weeks Versus Euro as Yield Demand Increases

The yen fell the most in three weeks against the euro after a government report showed Japanese investors bought more securities abroad than they sold for a seventh week.

The yen weakened the most versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars as gains in Asian stocks boosted speculation Japan’s employees will use their summer bonuses to buy overseas assets. The U.S. dollar climbed against 10 of the 16 most-traded currencies after Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said the nation’s faith in a strong dollar and its trust in the greenback as the world’s reserve currency is “unshakable.”

“The global environment for investors’ risk-taking is gradually improving,” said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The bias is for the yen to be sold, especially as trust funds are being launched to attract bonuses.”

The yen declined 0.9 percent to 134.43 per euro as of 6:01 a.m. in London from 133.23 in New York yesterday, the biggest drop since June 1. It dropped to 96.28 against the dollar from 95.66. Japan’s currency slid to 77.11 versus Australia’s dollar from 76.22 and fell to 61.70 per New Zealand dollar from 61.19. The yen weakened to 83.37 versus Canada’s currency from 82.61.

Canadian Dollar Advances to Three-Week High as Crude Oil Rises

Canada’s dollar strengthened to the highest level in more than three weeks as crude oil rose above $61 a barrel and investors speculated more corporate earnings will top estimates.

“The Canadian dollar is trading with a stronger tone,” said Shane Enright, a currency strategist in Toronto at CIBC World Markets Inc., a unit of the nation’s fifth-largest lender.

Canada’s currency climbed 1 percent to C$1.1394 per U.S. dollar at 10:08 a.m. in Toronto, from C$1.1505 yesterday. It touched C$1.1380, the strongest level since June 22. One Canadian dollar buys 87.77 U.S. cents.

The Canadian currency, known as the loonie, will rise to C$1.12 against the U.S. dollar by year-end, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 35 economists.

The loonie performed in line with other commodity-linked currencies today. The dollars of Australia and New Zealand rose 0.8 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, against the greenback.

The Canadian dollar was the second-best performer today against its U.S. counterpart among the 16 most-active currencies tracked by Bloomberg, after capping six straight weekly losses on July 10. The decline, its longest losing streak since December 2007, came on concern a global economic recovery will be delayed.

Australian, N.Z. Dollars Fall on China Comments, Japanese Data

The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell for the first time in five days after China said the U.S. currency’s may continue to dominate foreign-exchange markets, boosting demand for the greenback.

The Australian and New Zealand currencies extended declines after Japanese reports showed industrial output rose less than economists expected in May and retail sales declined. The U.S. dollar gained against 15 of the 16 major currencies after Guan Tao, deputy head of the international payment department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said the currency’s role is supported by the U.S.’s “super-strong comprehensive national power,” in an article in Chinamoney Magazine.

“There isn’t a realistic alternative to the U.S. dollar at the moment,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s biggest mortgage lender. The Australian dollar “won’t get below 79 cents this week, with a fair bit of support around the high 78- cent level,” he said.

Australia’s currency fell 1.2 percent to 79.87 U.S. cents as of 4:35 p.m. in Sydney from 80.79 cents in New York last week. The currency declined 0.9 percent to 76.20 yen.

Recovery Signals Drive EUR Rally

The EUR finished yesterday`s trades with gains against the Dollar as Euro-zone performed improved economic sentiment in July.

German unemployment figures appeared to be more optimistic than expected. The EUR gains were also considerable against the JPY reaching a week high. The EUR jumped as high as 134.86 Yen, to the level of134.67 Yen.
The Euro increased rapidly versus the USD to $1.4128 level. The gains were pared after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the EUR exchange rate looks somewhat on the strong side relative to its fundamentals. As technical analysis showed, EUR may increase its monthly gains versus the U.S Dollar today prior to reports that will show deflation deepened in the Euro-zone, and job losses increased.

Gains of the British Pound extended reaching a 4 week high versus the European currency as British house prices rose in Kuly for a third straight month.

What's happening with USD

The JPY slipped against major currencies, which follows strong gains in Tokyo share prices; where as GBP jumped after Brighter British housing data gave investors the opportunity to test higher ground for the currency.

On Wednesday, GBP hit a three-months high against the USD because of Forex updates the rate of decline in the house prices in England and Wales moderated to more slow in this year and sale amount raised up from record low levels.

Higher yielding currencies like the AUD and GBP were also getting a pick up against the JPY.

A trader at Japanese banks said that the crosses versus the yen are being bought by temporary players, mostly foreign hedge funds.

US data presented consumer prices posted their first 12-months fall in almost 54 years in March and industrial production fell down further. But the Federal Reserve said that economic activity is some parts of economy seem to be stabilizing.

Global Recession - Is it really Over?

The Central Bankers of the world met this past weekend in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Known for hoards of Deer, Elk, hunters and hamburgers, this relatively small frontier town became the center of the financial world for a few days – and will be widely remembered from this day forth as the place in which the global recession was officially declared over.

Just don’t tell those 14% of industrialized workers who are without work, don’t tell those farmers who are selling items at 2/3rds less than what they were last year because of trade restrictions, and don’t tell the Central Bankers themselves, because in the end – the meeting and declaration was more politically motivated than factually motivated.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the EU Central Bank President, gave a speech that can be defined as optimistic, or if you are one of those protagonists, you could have derived a negative message from him.

Ben Bernanke who heads up the US federal reserve was chipper and growth focused in his remarks – notwithstanding the actual numbers, he used words like “I feel” and “in my opinion” to describe the economic recovery – terms usually reserved for politicians and not numbers oriented Central Bankers. Good for him though as President Obama rewarded him with another term as Fed chairman for his efforts.

The Forex marketplace this week has been slow and light, most everyone is off in some vacation spot, perhaps hunting Deer and Elk or eating burgers. Forex traders have not been moving the markets these past few days – and neither has any news for the most part.

The summer is winding down, quarter 4 is around the corner and the world is anxiously awaiting something to happen. In Europe, Germany’s growth and true recession exit is marred by the other EU countries that are still suffering double digit unemployment and negative growth.

In the US everyone, including the politicians and policy makers are on vacation, trying to regroup and figure out how to spend another Trillion Dollars that they don’t have on a healthcare package. And in China, they are selling their Dollars (shhhhhh).